Future droughts in northern Italy: high-resolution projections using EURO-CORDEX and MED-CORDEX ensembles

Abstract We analyse the expected characteristics of drought events in northern Italy for baseline (1971–2000), near (2021–2050), and far (2071–2100) future conditions, estimating spatial extent duration, percentage affected area, frequency episodes. To this end, daily ensembles precipitation temperature records from Global Climate Models (GCMs) Regional (RCMs) pairs, extracted EURO-CORDEX MED-CORDEX RCP 4.5 8.5 scenarios, are collected at resolution 0.11 degrees. Before analysis, model outputs validated on weather station time series, scaling factors possible use bias correction identified. Annual anomalies conditions investigated; identified by standardized evapotranspiration index 12-, 24-, 36-month timescales. This study highlights importance using multiple indicators detection events, since comparison reveals that anomaly is main triggering factor. For both results indicate an intensification droughts period 2071–2100, with Alpine chain being especially increase severity. A North-to-South gradient duration also observed.